We’ve been talking about chokepoints a lot lately, and for good reason. Since March, the tanker market has been dealing with a constrained Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia pushed more crude west to Yanbu to get around it. Then Houthi pressure in the Red Sea compromised that route too. The workaround needed a workaround. Freight responded accordingly. But there’s a bigger point here. The world has a lot more chokepoints than we think.

Round 1: Would you rather own the tanker, or charter it? Right now, you’d probably choose ownership. With geopolitics rearranging trade flows, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and other chokepoints, and tanker markets responding accordingly, owning the scarce physical asset looks like a pretty enviable position. When cargoes need to move and everyone wants the same handful of ships, the Owner has something the Charterer can’t manufacture: another tanker. There are only so many ships, only so many in the right place and only so many available at precisely the moment everyone decides they need one. In that market, an Owner doesn’t need an especially elaborate commercial strategy. He needs a telephone, preferably one that won’t stop ringing. After years of financing the ship, crewing it, maintaining it, insuring it and complying with an ever-growing list of regulations, suddenly everyone wants the enormously expensive piece of steel you’ve spent all that money keeping afloat. Scarcity is a wonderful business when you own what’s scarce. Owner wins Round 1. But Would You Rather is never that easy.

The current VLCC orderbook boasts 295 vessels, 151 of which were ordered since January 1st. In total, the orderbook now represents roughly one-third of the existing VLCC fleet. The ordering pace is already more than double the total contracted during the full year of 2025 and more than eight times the number ordered just three years ago - and it’s only July. They're doing so at roughly $131 million per vessel, among the highest newbuilding prices the industry has ever seen, while delivery slots stretch into 2030. At first glance, this feels familiar. Strong freight markets. Robust balance sheets. Another ordering cycle. Oversupply. Freight rates drop. Haven’t we seen this movie before? Or is this time fundamentally different?